posted in Technology
2027 RAM Capacity Has Reportedly Been Sold out
www.ign.com/articles/ramageddon-continues-another-year-as-2027-memory-capacity-is-reportedly-sold-out
IGNNow That 2027 RAM Manufacturing Capacity Has Reportedly Been Sold Through, It's Hard To Imagine the RAMageddon Ending Any Time SoonA new report suggests that all three memory manufacturers — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — have collectively sold through their 2027 memory manufacturing capacity to AI companies. My prediction:
HBM and Vera Rubin are not useful for PC Gaming, at least not for current architectures. Main issue is that DDR5 production simply got cut to make more HBM. But there will be a huge amount of LPDDR, NVME / SSD drives and refurbished Hard Drives available, and hardware for running inference at home for pretty powerful models will become cheap as fuck, liberating us all from the hyperscalers; the open weights models from china are available for everyone.
At least i pray it will be this way.
Replying to @Wildmimic@anarchist.nexus
But aren’t the wafers uncut? It could be used for anything if they’re just in storage.
I’ve never heard of uncut wavers hitting storage or the market. These things are made to be used for whatever is needed at the moment. If you hear this news regarding “Ram cap sold out”, it means all available wavers they expect to be produced for that year have been allocated to whoever paid for them. If 50% of the wavers go into HBM, 30% into DDR including LPDDR and 20% go into NAND storage (i do not have the exact numbers, but i know that HBM needs around 3x the amount of silicon compared to DDR), then you are done selling your capacity - whatever happens afterwards does not make DDR5 appear magically on the market.
Only thing that could change that would be that the AI bubble crashes before 2027, then the allocation numbers will be changed.
Replying to @Wildmimic@anarchist.nexus
Not sure what you mean with the wafers hitting the market. I was only referring to the specific deal that OpenAI made with Samsung and SK hynix to purchase a metric boatload of 900,000 undiced DRAM silicon wafers per month.
According to Tom’s Hardware it includes “DDR5 and LPDDR4/LPDDR5 as well as premium HBM.”
Honestly I’m not sufficiently familiar with how that works to understand if any of that is consumer grade stuff.
Tom's HardwareOpenAI's Stargate project to consume up to 40% of global DRAM output — inks deal with Samsung and SK hynix to the tune of up to 900,000 wafers per monthWorking at scale.That means they have bought out the wavers - with a specific allocation for HBM/DDR/LPDDR/NAND as they need it. they know what percentages of what they need to reach the balance they use in their racks, and that will be what was ordered in detail.
The DDR5 can be used in common PCs, but it’s a different story with LPDDR. I have heard of an adapter to make LPDDR useable in common PCs, while i haven’t seen anything like that for HBM - and i wouldn’t bet on such an teck being available for the consumer market amytime soon, the architecture is quite different.